What to expect from the Liquid v. NAVI rematch

Liquid have surpassed all expectations for the early days of their new-look roster, finding themselves in a rematch with the world's #1 side for a spot in the BLAST Fall Final after emerging victorious in best-of-three series with two of the world's top seven teams in group play thus far.

What have we learned about Liquid?

Mostly that our cautious optimism as the NA faithful may have been well-placed. Russel "Twistzz" Van Dulken is finding his groove blending frags and tactics as the new IGL while Keith "NAF" Markovic has been turning back the clock and delighting naffers worldwide. There is still room to grow as Justin "jks" Savage and Roland "ultimate" Tomkowiak adjust to their new roles in a new squad, but the grit to win in close games is encouraging this early on in the chemistry-building phase.

• Twistzz is far from a fragging liability as IGL

• NAF is looking dangerous

• Liquid found a result the first time despite a lower team rating

NAVI the bounce-back Kings

NAVI have absolutely battered BIG twice now and barely lost to Liquid the first time. They are very much still the current world #1 team.

• Liquid's map wins were both 13-11.

• NAVI stomped Liquid on Mirage and did the same to BIG

• The two teams share permabans with NAVI likely letting Liquid waste their first ban on Vertigo while getting to let Mirage through again

Previous Matchups

Liquid won earlier this event 2-1. They won 13-11 on Anubis and Inferno, while dropping a forgettable Mirage to NAVI 13-2.

Likely Vetoes

Liquid's matches thus far gave us some insight into the team's map pool with regard to what they're comfortable floating to other teams. Vertigo is still the permaban, but they've been able to find results on Anubis, Ancient, Dust2, and now Inferno with their last matchup with NAVI. Will NAVI change their gameplan? Or stick to the script since both losses that they suffered took all 24 rounds to reach a result?

As always, these vetoes come with the caveat that they are highly speculative as they depend on whether Liquid, as the team coming from the upper bracket, chooses to pick first or ban last. We will assume they ban last.

• NAVI ban Vertigo (Permaban)

• Liquid ban Mirage (NAVI won 13-2 last series)

• NAVI pick Nuke (Punish Liquid's 25% Winrate)

• Liquid pick Anubis (Beat NAVI 13-11 last series)

• NAVI ban Ancient (Liquid has 80% Winrate)

• Liquid ban Inferno (Won but barely, lowest Winrate of remaining maps)

• Dust2 as Decider (Liquid 83% Winrate, NAVI 67% Winrate)

Analysis: Even with Liquid winning the last go around, this is poised to be a high stakes affair against an opponent who has already seen the new look Liquid and won't be so easily caught off guard by their honeymoon period. I expect close maps, so long as Liquid don't let Mirage through and their Nuke doesn't fall as flat as their Mirage did.

Liquid will face off against NAVI tomorrow at 01:30PM.