What to expect from Complexity v. Spirit

After falling in their opening match against HEROIC at the start of the tournament, Complexity have clawed their way to the final by dispatching OG and HEROIC to now face off against Spirit. Spirit pushed aside the teams that gave COL trouble earlier in the tournament and have been chilling since then awaiting their opponent. With history telling us COL do not do well against Spirit at the best of times, this will be a difficult matchup for COL tomorrow, albeit one with mass prestige comparable to Liquid's achievements over in Group D. With Complexity not wanting to be overshadowed by their domestic rivals, let's see what is in store for Complexity.

Complex path to victory

As noted in the intro Spirit will be a tough nut to crack for Complexity. While Complexity have had to battle bitterly to find a way into the Group A finals, Spirit have floated on a cloud. Likewise, the tangibles in terms of map pool, player quality, and previous matchups all go in Spirit's favor meaning something special will have to come out from Jonathan "EliGE" Jablonowski and Håkon "hallzerk" Fjærli especially to find a win tomorrow.

• As always EliGE has been a stud this event with a 1.37 rating over 7 maps

• Spirit haven't played an official in 4 days, maybe that helps COL?

• hallzerk posted a donk-esque stat-line against HEROIC today

Spirit Bomb

While Spirit have yet to be seriously tested this event, it can also be said that when facing the same opponents Complexity have come up against the Russians have done it much more grace and decisiveness. Their wins over OG and HEROIC were fairly comprehensive and their lineup is in very strong form. If I haven't said it enough already, this will be a tough match for COL.

• donk is currently MVP material with a 1.51 rating over four maps

• Spirit's map pool shapes up very well against COL, especially with perfect records on Anubis and Nuke

• Spirit have smashed COL in previous showdowns

Previous Matchups

Both of Complexity's previous matchups with Spirit were fairly comprehensive 2-0 losses to the Russian team.

Likely Vetoes

Heading into the veto things are admittedly looking quite rough for Complexity with their best maps also being some of Spirit's best maps. The teams have similar Winrates on Vertigo and Anubis while Spirit can also draw on Nuke and Ancient in this series. Considering three of these four maps will almost certainly be played tomorrow Spirit can be very confident heading into the series.

As always, these vetoes come with the caveat that they are highly speculative as they depend on whether Spirit, as the higher-ranked team at the time of seeding, chooses to pick first or ban last. We will assume they ban last.

• Complexity ban Mirage (Permaban)

• Spirit ban Inferno (Permaban)

• Complexity pick Vertigo (Could pick Anubis but Spirit have a 100% Winrate on the map)

• Spirit pick Nuke (100% Winrate, 67% Winrate Δ)

• Complexity ban Dust2 (25% Winrate)

• Spirit ban Ancient (Anubis has 100% Winrate)

• Anubis as Decider

Analysis: I feel relatively confident on the majority of the the veto with the exception of the decider. It depends on whether Complexity forego Vertigo to pick Anubis earlier in the veto and if Spirit end up making Ancient or Anubis the decider. Regardless of how the veto goes, the overall takeaway should be that Spirit has a clear advantage in this matchup.

With Spirit almost certain to pick Nuke and then win it, this map will almost certainly be a three-mapper unless Complexity float their permaban to ban Nuke and also win Vertigo which is also a strong map for Spirit. Looking at this series as a three-mapper, the series ending up Ancient or Anubis would likely favor the Russian team as they have a strong record on both maps.

Overall, the feeling is that Spirit have a good chance of claiming a 2-0 and even if forced to a third map it still favors Leonid "chopper" Vishnyakov and co.

Complexity will face Spirit tomorrow in the early morning at 06:00AM.