What to expect from Liquid v. NAVI

Liquid impressed with their win today over Virtus.pro, sending the Russian squad into the lower bracket with a close 2-0 victory. Their reward for that win is to now face the current world #1 NAVI in what will be a very difficult series for Liquid that would be very very impressive should they come out the winner.

What have we learned about Liquid?

After finally seeing Liquid in action, there's some good things to say about their outing against Virtus.pro. In particular, Russel "Twistzz" Van Dulken is still capable of being a fragger while acting as the team's IGL while Justin "jks" Savage seems to have a good level of match fitness despite being out of action for so long. Roland "ultimate" Tomkowiak had a somewhat more muted performance, but he really came alive in overtime on Ancient, which is good to see especially if he can bring out that level again against NAVI.

• Twistzz is still capable of tier-one fragging output

• jks and NAF are a strong anchor duo based on their debut

• ultimate had a decent debut with more good rounds than bad rounds

NAVI the Victorious

NAVI came into the BLAST Premier Fall Groups right after winning EWC 2024 and have seemingly kept that form with a one-sided beatdown of BIG. While not the toughest opponent for NAVI, Liquid need to be ready for a difficult match against the current world #1 team.

• iM and jL are in excellent form at the moment

• NAVI had a strong map pool versus the old Liquid

• The two teams share permabans with NAVI likely letting Liquid waste their first ban on Vertigo

Previous Matchups

These two teams have never played each other.

Likely Vetoes

Liquid's match versus Virtus.pro gave us some precious insights regarding the team's map pool under Twistzz. In particular, it seems they still do not play Vertigo while also still being quite comfortable on Ancient and Dust2, with the latter possibly giving NAVI some pause for thought as it is their second-best map.

As always, these vetoes come with the caveat that they are highly speculative as they depend on whether NAVI, as the higher-ranked team at the time of seeding, chooses to pick first or ban last. We will assume they ban last.

• Liquid ban Vertigo (Permaban)

• NAVI ban Inferno (1 Map Played)

• Liquid pick Dust2 (13-6 vs. VP)

• NAVI pick Mirage (80% Winrate)

• Liquid ban Nuke (Old core fared poorly on it)

• NAVI ban Anubis (33% Winrate)

• Ancient as Decider

Analysis: Even with Liquid winning Ancient and Dust2 against Virtus.pro, I can still see NAVI playing them as they are also some of their best maps. While against other teams that would be somewhat foolhardy, the #1 team in the world should be playing to their strengths rather than an opponent's weaknesses, especially against a team with one BO3 together.

With NAVI having a 60% and 80% Winrate on the first two maps in this series they have the clear advantage in the series unless Liquid pull out some new tricks or vetoes we have not seen yet.

Liquid will face off against NAVI tomorrow at 11:00AM.