What to expect from BOSS v. FlyQuest

BOSS went into ESL Pro League Season 19 today hoping for a win against BIG, and despite failing to do so, looked quite strong in the series. Both maps went the distance with the orgless squad pushing the Germans to their limit. As such, BOSS will look to leverage this positive into a win over FlyQuest as they look to avoid being knocked down into the Last Chance bracket. Let's back about this upcoming showdown

BOSSin

As previously mentioned, BOSS did quite well for themselves against BIG, only conceding the series 2-0 on the thinnest of margins (16-13, 13-10). This result is nothing short of impressive for an NA squad in their international debut and really gives hope they can do more damage in Malta, especially against a team in the lower end of the top 30 like FlyQuest.

• Cryptic was a frag machine while also calling a strong game against BIG

• d4rty struggled in his international debut, we hope to see more from him

• As we discuss later the veto is going to be trouble for BOSS against FlyQuest

INSQuest

FlyQuest fell fairly flat in their EPL debut, however against the Major champions of NAVI that is probably to be expected. Regardless, BOSS really cannot afford to be complacent as FlyQuest are still an experienced international team with the best and brightest Australia and New Zealand have to offer.

• INS is the star of the team right now based on FlyQuest's run in Chengdu

• dexter has experience as a European IGL which BOSS has to be ready for

• Vexite really struggled against NAVI

Previous Matchups

These two teams have never played each other.

Likely Vetoes

When considering the veto for a semi-professional NA team, one must always consider the degree to which results may be tainted by wins over lower-tier NA opposition. However, in this situation the problem is also present with FlyQuest as they play even lower level opposition at home in Australia. As such, the data is tainted to a degree which may add a degree of uncertainty to both teams' veto strategies as they need to be careful to not rely too heavily on homestand results.

As always, these vetoes come with the caveat that they are highly speculative as they depend on whether BOSS, as the higher-ranked team at the time of seeding, chooses to pick first or ban last. We will assume they ban last.

• FlyQuest ban Overpass (Permaban)

• BOSS ban Nuke (Permaban)

• FlyQuest pick Vertigo (100% Winrate)

• BOSS pick Ancient (60% Winrate)

• Mirage could be decider (BOSS has 7 maps played)

Analysis: Before we even get into analyzing the maps, it is worth remembering that most of FlyQuest's matches of late have been against very very low quality ANZ squads, helping to inflate their Winrates on a number of maps. For the sake of analysis we're going to give them some degree of faith that these results may translate to the real world, but it's worth considering that some of these numbers may be a bit fugazi.

Looking at the veto, BOSS have been given a gift by having Overpass be FlyQuest's permaban as it removes a map they have only played twice. Vertigo will likely be the first map played unless BOSS float Nuke (which would be unwise). This is problematic as it is FlyQuest's best map with a 100% Winrate, albeit against almost entirely domestic competition.

Therefore, the series is likely headed for a three-mapper, which will require BOSS to win Ancient before having to play one of Mirage, Inferno, or Anubis. Quite frankly, Inferno is a suicide mission for BOSS as they have a 0% Winrate.

Therefore, with the choice narrowed down to Mirage or Anubis, BOSS may choose to play Mirage as it will give them a chance to play a map they are more familiar with and one where they can rely on individual performances.

Overall, this will be a very difficult series on paper for BOSS, with FlyQuest having a number of maps where they can potentially punish the Americans.

The two teams will do battle tomorrow at 07:30AM.