What to expect from Liquid v. FURIA

After narrowly scraping by against paiN today, Liquid will head into another showdown against FURIA for a spot in the main group stage of IEM Cologne 2024. This presents a great opportunity for Liquid as avoiding any European squads is a lucky break in the current CS landscape, while they have had good results against FURIA in the past. While that was under the old Liquid roster it must also be said this new liquid is a different beast, one that thus far has seen all guns firing while FURIA itself has a number of deficiencies when it comes to their roster all popping off at once.

Why is Liquid only playing Brazilians?

Liquid are in a position where may make the main event at IEM Cologne after only playing two Brazilian teams, which they are likely perfectly happy with. Liquid has ample knowledge of FURIA and of Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo's leadership style as FURIA are one of their main domestic rivals. Based on their tough match against paiN today, one may expect this to be a painful matchup against FURIA, however consider that FURIA are in the same boat as they struggled against domestic rivals Imperial.

• jks has continued to ramp up, posting a 1.26 rating against paiN today

• Liquid has a clear advantage on the veto and map pool depth versus FURIA

• Twistzz was uncharacteristically muted today on Anubis, keep an eye on his performance tomorrow

Skullz Emoji

FURIA are set to face Liquid tomorrow after besting Imperial in a domestic cage match. With this win, FURIA will be looking to overpower a new roster in Liquid that may not have all of their ducks in a row quite yet. However, one must consider FURIA's poor 45.2% winrate against Top 20 teams this year and consider if the team has what it takes to take down a squad that just came off of besting VP and NAVI in an impression fashion.

• To that end, FURIA will need Skullz to put up a similar performance to that against Imperial

• On the other hand, chelo has been underwhelming at this event and for some time in general

• FURIA 's map pool currently leaves a lot to be desired

Previous Matchups

Liquid's old roster faced FURIA back in EPL Season 20, collecting a 2-1 win over the Brazilian squad.

Likely Vetoes

Heading into this match, we have to keep in mind that Liquid are still a relatively new roster so the data we have about their map pool and veto preferences is still a bit shallow. However, for the moment Liquid seem to be holding to their map pool, giving us some degree of insight into how the veto will go against FURIA. Based on that, Liquid can feel confident to a degree heading into the veto as they play many of the same maps FURIA does albeit with Liquid enjoying a better winrate.

As always, these vetoes come with the caveat that they are highly speculative as they depend on whether Liquid, as the higher-ranked team at the time of seeding, chooses to pick first or ban last. We will assume they ban last.

• FURIA ban Anubis (Permaban, Liquid has a 75% Winrate)

• Liquid ban Nuke (FURIA's 2nd best map; Liquid can float Vertigo as FURIA don't play it)

• FURIA pick Inferno (Best map, 67% Winrate, however it's a strong map for Liquid as well)

• Liquid pick Dust2 (Best map, 83% Winrate, smashed VP on it at BLAST Fall)

• FURIA ban Mirage (33% Winrate, rarely played)

• Liquid ban Vertigo (Permaban)

• Ancient as a possible decider

Analysis: Based on this possible veto, Liquid can feel really confident going into the series as they have a ≥67% Winrate on all three maps. The big consideration here is whether or not Liquid float Vertigo and save it till the very end. I think this risk is well worth it for Liquid as FURIA have never played the map on LAN and their only matches are against RUBY and MOUZ NXT in a CCT even, hardly tough enough competition to be considered tested on the map.

As for FURIA, they are relatively stuck having to get rid of their permaban, Anubis, as Liquid love the map and bested NAVI twice on it. This gives the Brazilians little room to maneuver as that allows Liquid to pick Dust2 where they have an 83% Winrate while playing into Liquid's hand of also getting Ancient. Overall, Liquid have a very strong advantage on the veto front that speaks to FURIA's relatively shallow map pool at the moment.