Falling prices means buying an Armory Pass might not be worth it
Since the release of the Armory and the Armory Pass system, players acquired hundreds of skins from the new collections just by playing the game. But now that these skins have hit the community market on Steam, the $16 cost of the Armory Pass looks more unreasonable.
Even with the Armory update adding a mandatory seven day restriction before re-listing items on the Steam market, it was only a matter of time before the skins started getting listed in bulk. For example, only a handful of the limited time Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) skins were available to buy on Oct. 10, selling between $25 and $50. But starting on Oct. 11, hundreds of them flooded the market, dropping the price to as low as $5.36, before climbing back up to just over $7.
Of course, the skins in each collection are priced different depending on their rarity and exterior quality. The rarer skins with higher exterior quality are still priced quite high, especially the highly sought after items like the AWP | CMYK. But given how rarely these items drop when spending Armory Credits, the skins you do end up with might not be worth the cost of getting the pass.
Over time though, more skins will flood the market, and the prices will continue to fall. When that happens, the Armory Pass will likely used just by people trying to get good rolls. The thrill of the Armory Pass may be worth it to some, and Valve are likely to continue the concept in future, however for players looking to acquire only a few skins, it may be worth waiting for them to flood onto the market.