What to expect from paiN vs. NIP

paiN had a woeful outing last time on the international stage, at the IEM Katowice play-in's the team went out with a whimper and winless. With losing their captain Vinicios "PKL" Coelho after the event, the team now have to adjust and ESL Pro League Season 17 is their chance to prove they can compete on a international level. Their opening match could be a perfect opportunity for an upset as NIP are still using Kristian "k0nfig" Wienecke in place of Hampus "hampus" Poser whilst the Swede is on personal leave.

First Team form

paiN are still hanging on to a spot in the top 30 of the HLTV rankings, however, it's hard to justify that placing. The majority of their points comes from a relatively weak domestic NA scene, with their losses against ATK, Nouns, and MIBR proving that they are still a fair way off the top teams in the region. These results have all come off the back of the Brazilian's torrid time at the IEM Katowice play-in tournament, where only Vinicios "PKL" Coelho had a positive rating. So it was bad news for paiN when it was announced that PKL would be stepping down, with none of the remaining players having proved their worth on the international stage. NIP will be a massive step-up in competition but with teams like Rooster and Grayhound in their group paiN could snatch a win or two.

• winless in Katowice

• Lost to MIBR, ATK and Nouns since Katowice

• PKL 1.15 rating at Katowice was the only positive rating

• Gabriel "NEKIZ" Schenato, PKL's replacement, only sports 0.94 rating against top 30 teams in his career

Second team form

NIP came into 2023 with renewed hope as they finally found their star AWPer in NAVI academy product Daniil "headtr1ck" Valitov, however, they suffered a blow when it was announced hampus had decided to take some personal leave sitting out this entire major cycle. In his place the legendary organization called on the services of k0nfig, a player who can single handledly win team's rounds with his aggression but has struggled with inconsistency in the server and issues outside of the server. With k0nfig in tow NIP made it through the Katowice play-in stage but failed to progress to the playoffs after losses to Vitality and Outsiders. Now having not played an official in over a month NIP are somewhat of a question mark, especially now they have had time to integrate k0nfig into their system.

• k0nfig 0.87 rating at IEM Katowice

• headtr1ck has posted a 1+ rating in every event on NIP

• Brollan 1.31 rating in Play-in stage, 0.93 in the group stage

• Aleksi "Aleksib" Virolainen is notorious for having a structured approach, having a month of could of helped k0nfig integrate

Likely Vetoes

With NIP having not played since Katowice, and paiN only beating up lower tier opposition the vetoes could get a bit whacky in this series. However, in theory the map pool should be comfortable for both teams as Nuke, Vertigo and Mirage are favorites of both teams it might come down to which team wants to take a risk or do they both play it safe.

• NIP ban Anubis, have avoided the map so far in 2023

• paiN ban Overpass, lost to Nouns and only have a 33% winrate

• NIP pick Nuke, has long been a favorite for Aleksib-led teams and 100% wr

• paiN pick Mirage, 85% wr

• With Vertigo, Inferno and Ancient being left it's anyone's guess, I think Vertigo will be the most likely

Extras

NIP will be heavily favored coming into the matchup but, with the map pools lining up nicely and maybe some ring rust on the side of the Ninjas there is a world where the Brazilian side can cause a major upset.