Opinion: Can NA teams bounce back at IEM Dallas?

"North American Counter-Strike is in a rough spot right now" would be a massive understatement given the current state of affairs that the scene finds itself in. Complexity, a young roster filled with some of the brightest talents the region has to offer, went out of the Challengers stage of the PGL Antwerp Major with just a single BO1 win over Mongolian underdogs IHC. Liquid, the best NA team around currently, survived a shaky 0-2 start to get through the Challengers stage 3-2, only to find themselves blown out of the water, going 0-3 in the Legends stage. However, IEM Dallas is a new tournament, and I will be giving my opinion in this article on whether or not the NA teams present will fare any better back in the US.

NA's past on home turf

Before delving into the specifics of both the NA teams attending IEM Dallas, I think it is worth making a note of some of the major LANs that have been held in North America in the past. The international LAN scene was obviously greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, stopping pretty much any chance of teams traveling across the world to compete in front of crowds for the majority of 2020 and 2021. IEM Dallas marks the return of real tier-one Counter-Strike in the United States, and while the scenes are vastly different now, traditionally NA teams have done rather well in front of home crowds.

Two examples of events where NA teams triumphed as underdogs in front of an NA crowd are ESL One New York 2019 and the ELEAGUE Boston Major 2018. Evil Geniuses put on a stellar performance, being spurred on by the crowd in Brooklyn to overcome the formidable Astralis side who had won their fourth Major title earlier that same month. As for the Boston Major, the story of that victory is the stuff of legends, especially when you take into account the raucous arena, which had the undisputed favorites FaZe visibly shaken in the final against Cloud9.

Liquid

Jonathan "EliGE" Jablonowski and co. are the closest thing that NA has to a contender right now, but even they have a long way to go it seems until they can compete at the top again. The core of EliGE, Keith "NAF" Markovic and Nick "nitr0" Cannella, who won the Intel Grand Slam in record time together, is flanked by French legend Richard "shox" Papillon and the most exciting prospect in the scene, AWPer Josh "oSee" Ohm. The team put their fans through a rollercoaster of emotions in Antwerp, falling to G2 and Imperial on the opening day, before showing signs of life with BO3 wins over 9z, fellow countrymen Complexity, and Astralis. There were no similar signs of life in the Legends stage, however. Liquid was outclassed against Heroic and FURIA, before being sent back across the Atlantic by Vitality.

In an interview with us here at Dust2.us, EliGE was clear that the main goal for the team "would be making it out of the Legends stage". When looking at the names on this roster on paper, that is a completely reasonable statement to make. Despite this, the performances on the server have not been up to playoff standard. Outside of their BO3 victory against Astralis, Liquid did not score any victories that would not have been expected of them, even losing games they reasonably should have won such as the Imperial game.

Despite his clutch factor shining at several points during the Challengers stage, shox is clearly going to be the first to be removed, with reports even suggesting that his fate is almost sealed. While he has his moments, the eye test clearly shows that shox does not appear comfortable with his roles on this team, with role clashes between him and NAF being anticipated well before he signed. A 0.64 rating at the Legends stage of the Major is absolutely unacceptable for a player on a team that is hoping to compete at the top level. While Liquid is a different team, shox has found success on a team that he was set to leave when you look at Vitality at the end of 2021. If it is indeed shox's last event with Liquid, playing without pressure could be what they need for a final run.

EliGE, on the other hand, while in no fear of being cut, must step up considering his caliber of player. A 1.09 rating at the Challengers stage and a 0.81 rating at the Legends stage are not befitting of a player often regarded as the best player that NA has produced. When you consider that he has been a consistent contender in the top 20 players list since 2017, a drastic increase in the form of EliGE is needed if they want to find success in Dallas.

Looking at the bracket, I don't think it is unreasonable for Liquid to make it to the playoffs. Their opening game is a BO1 against Cloud9 who have been struggling themselves since the outset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Taking the unpredictability of a BO1 into account, we could maybe see Liquid progress to face FURIA or Imperial. If Liquid come into a game against FURIA with fire on home turf, there is a possibility that they can pull out a result. However, if Imperial is the opponent, I fully expect them to have learned from their blunder in Antwerp by staying away from Inferno and giving themselves a good chance to beat Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo's legendary lineup.

Complexity

Despite the infamous quote by Paytyn "⁠junior⁠" Johnson that his team Complexity was "50/50" with Liquid for the best team in NA prior to the Major, their chances of success in Dallas pale in comparison to their compatriots. In Antwerp, the vast inexperience of this lineup was thoroughly exposed as they were blown out 16-1 by Vitality, crumbled under the pressure against Outsiders, and lost the NA derby against Liquid 0-2. While none of these three teams who beat them are in particularly good form themselves, with all of them failing to make playoffs, the experience on their side made Complexity an ideal opponent for them.

The main issue with this lineup is one that has been brought up time and time again; junior. While he is a young guy and his raw talent was proven beyond a reasonable doubt in tier-two, junior has failed to deliver any sort of considerable impact in tier-one. A 0.71 rating in the Challengers stage is not the sort of stat line that you would be hoping for from your AWPer. Hopefully, for junior and Complexity's sake, the fact that this tournament takes place in the same city as where his organization is based will provide him some comfort, and he can perform to a level that is expected considering his talents.

The bracket is perhaps the biggest thing that will be holding Complexity back from success in this tournament. The first matchup for Johnny "JT" Theodosiou's side will come against MIBR. Complexity look to get revenge on the Brazilian squad after two separate BO3 losses this year. Whether they make it past MIBR or not, Complexity will be coming up against either BIG or NIP in their second match. A daunting BO3 awaits them either way.

Conclusions

Being an NA fan right now requires quite a bit of copium it seems. When the shuffle came to be at the start of the year with Liquid, Complexity, and Evil Genuises all forming new rosters, a lot of high expectations started to form which have not been met thus far. Liquid seems to have the best chance at this tournament, with a relatively easier side of the bracket when compared with Complexity.

If shox can find some comfort and the trio of NAF, EliGE, and oSee can come online at the same time, we could see Liquid on stage in Dallas, and considering the past with NA teams on stage, who knows how far they can go. Complexity faces a much higher mountain to climb if they want to make it to the playoffs. Based on their previous performances at tier-one events, I think Complexity needs a really good showing as a team and from the individuals here. They need to show some spark and give an indication that they at least belong at this level.

Liquid will kick off their run at IEM Dallas against Cloud9 on Monday 02:20PM, with Complexity set to follow them against MIBR at 03:30PM