Opinion: Are Liquid running out of steam?

In a time where North American Counter-Strike is far from its' peak, glimmers of hope are far and few between for fans of the region. But if any team has a shot at being a beacon for the NA scene, Liquid is certainly that team. The beginning of 2022 brought drastic changes for the squad, seeing three players brought on to join the staple duo of Jonathan "EliGE" Jablonowski and Keith "NAF" Markovic. A rough start for the fresh lineup has since seen the squad showcase potential against international competition, tarnished somewhat by unfortunate recent results.

Now, Liquid face their biggest test as a unit so far, with their upcoming participation in the Challengers Stage of the PGL Antwerp Major. This is the event where Liquid could confirm themselves as not just one of the top dogs domestically, but also as one of the leading squads in international competition. But before that, it's worth evaluating Liquid's rise to this point, and where they stand heading into this crucial event.

Putting the pieces together

For Liquid, 2021 could be described succinctly with one word: lackluster. The team certainly had strong placings in 2021, such as a semifinal finish at Katowice at the beginning of the year, but they also had showings that left much more to be desired, like a 12th-14th place finish at the PGL Stockholm Major. These examples are not largely representative of their year, as 2021 for Liquid was otherwise generally filled with mediocre, middle-of-the-pack placements.

For an organization as prestigious as Liquid, these results were not at all up to par. At the tail end of 2021, the organization removed the trio of Michael "Grim" Wince, Jake "Stewie2K" Yip, and Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo. In their place, the team made a slew of bold additions to the lineup. First up to bat was Josh "oSee" Ohm, the star AWPer of Extra Salt, and one of the most highly praised players in tier 2 NA CS. While oSee certainly showed promise, this move would be his biggest test so far, with many questioning if he would be able to keep up his stellar showings in the upper echelon of CS.

Just two days later, Liquid announced the signing of veteran French player Richard "shox" Papillon. While shox was more of a known element than the rookie oSee, there were concerns that shox would struggle to make the transition to an international roster. The final piece of the puzzle was unveiled a few weeks later, as Nick "nitr0" Cannella made his return from VALORANT to lead this revamped Liquid lineup. Of all the new additions, this one was certainly the riskiest, with worries that the leader may struggle to find his form in terms of both playing and calling.

Rough beginnings

The start of 2022 was not kind to Liquid. The squad debuted in the BLAST Premier Spring Groups against the monstrous new FaZe lineup. Liquid was narrowly defeated by FaZe, and only managed to avoid elimination by edging past domestic rivals Evil Geniuses. An even closer rematch loss against FaZe in the lower-bracket shipped Liquid off to the knockout stage, where Liquid saw their run ended at the hands of CIS powerhouse NAVI.

IEM Katowice, a landmark event on the tournament calendar, proved to be an equally unfortunate run for the team. Once again, Liquid squared off against FaZe in their opening game, taking the eventual tournament winners to all three maps before being knocked to the lower bracket. To add insult to injury, Liquid's opponent in the lower bracket was none other than eventual runner-ups G2, who moved past Liquid 2-0 to send the Americans packing in last place.

Liquid undoubtedly got dealt a rough hand as far as opponents go. FaZe, NAVI, and G2 were all squads touted at the beginning of the year as championship contenders, and it's simply the luck of the draw that put Liquid up against the three of them. While there was some positive takeaways, these results largely raised concern. At BLAST, NAF and EliGE both played well, putting up 1.21 and 1.15 ratings respectively, but star AWPer oSee only managed a 1.01 rating in his debut tournament for the squad, fueling speculation he may not be ready to compete at this level. At Katowice, there was truly nothing to write home about, as no player managed to finish the event with a positive rating after the two brutal matchups.

Showcasing deep run potential

Heading into March, Liquid had plenty of opportunities to improve on their unfortunate showings in the first two months of the year. A dominant run through the first Americas RMR Open Qualifier was a nice confidence booster, securing the team a spot at the Romanian event while hardly breaking a sweat. The real test came at the tail end of the month, with Liquid's participation in Season 15 of ESL Pro League.

In Group C, Liquid put up a highly respectable showing, ultimately finishing with a 3-2 record. Liquid had no trouble dealing with lower-level domestic competition like Party Astronauts and GODSENT, and took down #11 ranked BIG with ease as well. For their other matches, Liquid had an unfortunate game against #2 ranked Players, and fell just short of taking down the red-hot Movistar Riders, who ultimately topped the group. This solid placement was enough for Liquid to secure a spot in the playoffs.

Liquid made their biggest statement as a unit so far in the playoffs, stamping out Heroic to lock in a quarterfinal appearance. Liquid nearly kept up the momentum from that win into their match against NIP, but the Swedes very narrowly came out on top in an extremely tight series, seeing Liquid bow out with a respectable 5th-8th place finish. Aside from the placement, there was plenty to be excited about with this Liquid showing compared to previous ones in the year. Not only were EliGE and NAF continuing their strong form, with 1.18 and 1.12 ratings respectively, but they were also joined by oSee, who was on EliGE's heels with a 1.17 rating. Although shox and nitr0 did not put up as strong ratings as their teammates, they both managed to do their part, with 0.94 and 0.96 ratings to their names. If Liquid could keep up the form showcased here in EPL, more playoff appearances would be well within reach for the team.

Last-minute hiccups

Liquid followed up their strong EPL showing with a fifth-place finish at the Americas RMR, seeing them reach the PGL Antwerp Major Challengers Stage, without the opportunity to vie for the Legends Stage due to a first-round upset to 00Nation. While missing out on even being able to fight for the single Legends spot certainly stings, Liquid could take solace in the fact they largely trounced their opponents en route to the Major, barring the opening upset.

Another event against domestic opposition was soon in the cards for Liquid, with their participation in the North American IEM Dallas Closed Qualifier. Liquid went all three maps against fellow Americans Evil Geniuses, but otherwise, the squad was able to move through the qualifier with relative ease. EliGE, oSee, and NAF spearheaded Liquid's qualification to IEM Dallas, with the trio claiming the three highest ratings of the event.

Liquid had one more significant event lined up before the Major, the North American BLAST Premier Spring Showdown. Although this event features a cutthroat single-elimination bracket, Liquid were expected to at least reach the finals, contending with the other favorite squad FURIA for the BLAST Premier Spring Final spot up for grabs. In a shocking upset, Liquid saw their run halted immediately by paiN, despite a heroic effort from NAF, who posted a 1.31 rating in the series. This result absolutely left a sour taste in Liquid's mouth. If the team is unable to even consistently move past domestic competition, will they be able to tussle with the best international teams?

How far will Liquid get?

This is the question lingering in the minds of many. By the time the Major begins, Liquid will not have played against international competition in over a month, and with the unfortunate recent result against paiN, there are certainly doubts floating around regarding the capability of this team. To make matters worse, Liquid find themselves slated to play G2 in their opening match, due to being the fifteenth-lowest seed in this stage of the event.

Liquid will certainly be facing an uphill battle, but there are some things going their way that keep the squad in contention. For one, it's important to stress the firepower potential of this squad. EliGE and NAF have been absolutely phenomenal for Liquid this year, averaging 1.22 and 1.20 ratings throughout 2022 so far. Their veteran status and firepower will be driving forces in Liquid's Major run. Another bright light for the team is oSee, who has not only managed a 1.15 rating throughout the year but also a 1.10 Big Event rating, second only to Elige's 1.11 Big Event Rating. This shows that so far oSee has been able to perform in matches against elite competition, something that will be integral to a potential run here for Liquid.

While there are rightful concerns on how the squad's low seeding could impact their run in the Challengers Stage, Liquid should still be very capable of securing the three wins they need to move on to the Legends Stage. Even if Liquid can't steal away a win against G2 in their opening match, it is worth noting that Liquid is the sixth-highest-rated team in this portion of the event. The firepower of Liquid's star trio, paired with the veteran status of four of five of their players puts them at a significant advantage over newcomer teams such as IHC, Bad News Eagles, and 9z.

With all this in mind, one can confidently assert that Liquid will move past the Challengers Stage to the Legends Stage of the Major. Unfortunately for Liquid, this may be as far as they get. With limited recent experience against top teams, Liquid will have a significantly more difficult time in a stage of the event full of heavyweights such as FaZe, NAVI, and Cloud9. While Liquid have the potential to claim a scalp or two, a playoff appearance will require not only the star trio to perform, but for supportive duo shox and nitr0 to not be liabilities for the squad, as top teams will capitalize on any weakness.

Liquid start their journey in the PGL Antwerp Major on May 9th, where the Americans will be hoping to get off to a strong start against G2 in their opening match.