IEM Rio Major preview

There are less than 24 hours to go before the first game is played in Rio de Janeiro and it's been a long time coming. Since the announcement of ESL One: Rio 2020, Brazilian fans have been waiting for this moment and now, after a two-year delay due to COVID-19, the time has finally come.

This could be the most unknown Major in terms of favorites. The two strongest teams throughout the year have had some lows recently, the pack closest to those two is reaching higher levels of performance and consistency, and some dark horses might prove to be top-tier teams after this competition.

It might be hard to predict the winner of the IEM Rio Major given the different momentums the teams are coming into the competition with and also the different obstacles they will face. The only possible thing to do is to group the teams into separate categories to determine their possibilities of leaving Rio de Janeiro victorious.

CONTENDERS

(FaZe, NAVI, Vitality, and Liquid)

The top four teams from the HLTV World Ranking are seen as the top dogs. There is no clear-cut favorite from this bunch.

FaZe slipped during BLAST Premier Fall Groups and ESL Pro League Season 16 against top-ten opposition, but their showings all tournament long weren't that convincing, both times. During the European RMR they managed to get one of the Legends spots, but they played four overtimes in five maps to do so, against the likes of GamerLegion, fnatic, and Sprout. Despite their worse results, FaZe are still a force to be reckoned with. Only they know what they have in store for fans in Brazil.

NAVI, just like FaZe, didn't look very good during the 16th season of EPL. They lost against G2 sure, but that G2 team didn't even make it to the Major. The Ukrainian team arrived in Rio after a comfortable RMR, where they showed that they overcame that loss and bettered themselves. The EPL result might be a fluke since NAVI, prior to that, was able to cleanly take down Vitality during the BLAST Premier Fall Groups, in Lotan "Spinx" Giladi's first outing with the French organization. Can they repeat their Stockholm run in Brazil?

Vitality are looking more and more dangerous as Spinx settles in with the team's system. The 22-year-old has had only two months to adapt but the team already won EPL S16 with him. Despite that, Vitality couldn't get through Astralis in the BLAST Premier Fall Showdown, showing signs of inconsistency. With the help of Danish legends and French icons, Vitality is hoping to hit the jackpot after the Spinx addition with a win in Rio.

Liquid comes into this contender list as the dark horse of the bunch. The team has found success with the addition of Mareks "YEKINDAR" Gaļinskis ever since his first tournament with the North Americans in Cologne, where Liquid fell to the flaming hot Spanish squad of Movistar Riders. Despite that, a 5-6th finish in their first event with an international player is good. Things only got better, with the squad only achieving top-three finishes or better in the following competitions. They won their BLAST group, not dropping a single map against NIP and Heroic, they finished EPL in second place, and got their tickets to the Legends stage after a 4-0 run in the Americas RMR. Liquid is coming to the Major on an upward trajectory, will they keep going up?

PLAYOFF BOUND

(Cloud 9, Heroic, FURIA, NIP, OG, ENCE, Spirit)

Now comes the hardest part. With the more favorite teams separated from the rest, the playoffs spots are up for grabs for four of these teams but the feeling is that any of these seven can be there. In this group, there are those who haven't been quite there on the top, due to a variety of problems, such as Cloud 9, FURIA, and Heroic, and those who still need to climb some steps to be around that level, such as NIP, ENCE, OG, and Spirit.

For Cloud9, Heroic, and FURIA, this is the time to make the jump. All three teams have shown promise multiple times. C9 won IEM Dallas 2022, Heroic and FURIA have been close, but the inconsistency has been very damaging for both rosters. Cloud9 needs to be able to play as they did during the BLAST Premier World Final 2021, still under the Gambit tag, on a consistent basis. Heroic still has yet to prove themselves after adding Jakob "jabbi" Nygaard, who has been the lowest-rated member of that squad. FURIA haven't made any recent roster changes, but the problem for the Brazilians is their play style, which either works wonderfully as it did during the PGL Antwerp Major, or it doesn't work at all and they look like a group of friends playing matchmaking, as they did during the Roobet Cup 2022. Funnily enough, Cloud9 needs to show a level of performance like they never showed this year, and Heroic and FURIA need to repeat what they have done in the last two majors.

For NIP, OG, and ENCE this is the time to show these newly assembled rosters are working. The two former G2 IGLs are now surrounded by a lot of firepower, in a system they have complete control of. For Aleksi "Aleksib" Virolainen and the Ninjas, the maturity and experience in majors will be a boost but it depends on which NIP they are going to show. Nemanja "nexa" Isaković has a huge task on his hands, as this is a squad that has only had three major appearances, two from nexa and one from Abdul "degster" Gasanov. Despite this, the squad has been looking dangerous sometimes, only needing that bit of experience that they are going to get during their stay in Rio. ENCE is another squad that is going to Brazil with recent lineup changes, as they added a new AWPer in Alvaro "SunPayus" Garcia and a new rifler in Valdemar "valde" Bjørn Vangså. Can this squad really perform or have their recent appearances been part of the honeymoon period?

Spirit is the last squad to be featured in this group. This is almost the same roster that fell on its feet against FaZe in the semifinals of the last Major. That one piece that left the puzzle was degster, the highest-rated member of the team at that time. Can the young Spirit squad manage to replicate what they did in Antwerp, this time with 17 year-old Igor "w0nderful" Zhdanov?

LEGENDS?

(Sprout, 00 NATION, EG, GamerLegion, fnatic, MOUZ, 9z, Imperial, BIG, Bad News Eagles, Outsiders)

It seems a bit odd to have Sprout mentioned here since they already are on the Legends Stage, but the truth is that this squad only has two months and their schedule in the European RMR wasn't the most difficult one. They won against forZe, Spirit, lost a close game against FaZe, and then had to face B8 to clinch their Legends spot. Recently, this squad lost against ex-Finest, Bad News Eagles, and BLUEJAYS. What can be expected from Sprout? Only they know.

The rest of the teams in this group come from the Challengers stage, and have high hopes of getting through to the next phase, some more than others. 00 NATION have been looking solid lately, the same can be said for EG and GamerLegion. fnatic seem to have found the solution with the new Danish duo, MOUZ's young guns are getting their LAN experiences as of late to prepare for the Brazilian crowds. 9z and Imperial have the home advantage this time, but the young roster will still need to pull off some amazing performances in hopes to advance, as the older roster of Imperial will have all the experience in the world to help them put on a good show for their fans. BIG have been on a rough patch lately, but they prevailed against Vitality to be in Rio. What kind of BIG can we expect? Just like BIG, Bad News Eagles have recently lost a couple of games where they should have absolutely won. This squad has shown up when it matters before and they might do it again. Outsiders are going to Rio with a recent ESL Challenger Rotterdam win in their bag, but this squad has shown some inconsistency since the addition of two new riflers. Is it Jame time?

MIGHT SURPRISE

(IHC, Grayhound)

Counter-Strike is evolving everywhere, there are no bad teams playing in any Major for some time now. It's true there are some underdeveloped regions, mostly Asia and Oceania, but the level of CS:GO the representatives of both continents can show is a lot higher than what it used to be. It is well expected that either IHC or Grayhound exit the Rio Major 0-3, or even both but don't discard the potential that these teams have to upset. IHC won two maps and had three other competitive maps during the last major, so it's very possible we see something like that again. Grayhound comes as the absolute favorite to not win a single map. Due to the level of competition in the OCE region, it is expected for them to get a reality check after the first map against OG, but the Aussies will try to prove everyone wrong by showing some good Counter-Strike.

The IEM Rio Major starts tomorrow, with the first games kicking off at 10:00AM, between MOUZ and Outsiders, and 9z and GamerLegion.