Opinion: What to expect from Evil Geniuses
This iteration of Evil Geniuses started out with an incredible amount of hype, reuniting the only North American Major-winning core of Jake "Stewie2k" Yip, Timothy "autimatic" Ta, and William "RUSH" Wierzba while carrying over Vincent "Brehze" Cayonte and Tsvetelin "CeRq" Dimitrov from the previous roster. Such a combination would have been the dream for any North American fan circa 2020. Alas, it is no longer 2020 and the players on this roster have much to prove at the Americas RMR if they want to consider themselves in the running for 50/50 best in North America.
The Evil Geniuses of late have struggled since their creation, facing only losses in their first outing at Blast Premier Spring Groups 2022. In addition, they very well could have missed out on qualifying for the Americas RMR as well, losing in the first day of the first North American RMR Qualifier, a loss so embarrassing it does not even have a match page on HLTV. Luckily for the old-school roster, however, with many top contenders already having taken their seats through the first qualifier, they steamrolled through the bracket of the second one. They finished second overall with their sole loss coming from a seeding match to Party Astronauts.
One thing that we can commend Evil Geniuses for is that their finish was on par with other top North American teams (except Liquid) at ESL Pro League. That is to say, they also went 0-5 in groups, joining the great company of Bad News Bears and Party Astronauts. Complexity would also likely be in that wonderful clique if they were not in the same group as Evil Geniuses themselves. Complexity pulled out their only match win in that domestic derby where Evil Geniuses secured their only map win.
So to answer the question asked by the title: not much. But, what we should expect and what we can hope for are two different questions. This Evil Geniuses lineup contains some of the best North American talent of the past few years with three former HLTV top 20 players along with Stewie2k, the highest-earning North American player of all time, RUSH, a supportive rock, and Damien "maLeK" Marcel, a world-renowned coach. The question with this lineup was always if maleK could reignite the fire that skyrocketed Cloud9 to win the Boston 2018 Major and Evil Geniuses to the #1 spot in 2020. The puzzle pieces are here, it's just a matter of arranging them into a cohesive picture.
Evil Geniuses' first challenge comes in the form of paiN. While a tough opponent, paiN is probably one of the best matchups for Evil Geniuses as they are one of the few adversaries that Evil Geniuses have beaten. Of course, this also means paiN will be able to prepare better, but hopefully the intellectual prowess of Stewie2k and maLeK prove to be useful in anti-stratting.
However, the Americas RMR is a Swiss system tournament, which means that EG need three wins to take a spot, while three losses are all it takes to send them packing from Bucharest. paiN will only be their first match with a minimum of two more, so we need to see more out of Evil Geniuses when they step on Romanian soil.
The first win condition for the Geniuses is CeRq and Brehze. We know how good these players are; Brehze was a top-ten player as a rifler in 2019 and CeRq cracked the top 20 list that year as well. With Stewie2k in-game leading, RUSH an infamously poor fragger, and autimatic coming off a scenery change from VALORANT, these two must step up for the North American squad to come anywhere close to qualification.
Second, RUSH and Stewie2k cannot be a liability. RUSH is currently sporting a 0.92 rating with Evil Geniuses. While he was never expected to be a mad fragger, he must be able to hold his own, and a 0.80 impact rating straight at the bottom of the HLTV slider just won't do. The same applies for Stewie2k's 0.94 rating, however he at least has the solace of a decent 0.99 impact rating and the excuse of calling the shots.
So far, the only player I haven't mentioned is autimatic, but he's not safe from criticism either. Yes, he's coming back from a completely different game, but Nick "nitr0" Cannella is as well, and he has to deal with leading the team too. nitr0 and his Liquid side made it out of ESL Pro League Season 15 groups, where Evil Geniuses couldn't even manage one win. The VALORANT excuse is wearing off quickly, so autimatic soon has to show why his switch back was warranted.
maLeK, the head of the operation, has a lot to do. He was not able to attend ESL Pro League due to a medical issue, so he could not help EG avoid their 0-5 result. He will be behind the team at the Americas RMR, but as a Major qualifier, the event follows Valve rules meaning minimal coach interaction with the team. His impact will be felt out of the server, where he will strategize with Stewie2k to formulate a cohesive game plan and finally bring home a positive result.
To get down to brass tacks, Evil Geniuses was never supposed to perform well at BLAST Premier Spring or ESL Pro League. They are still a new roster learning to mesh with one another. The Americas RMR, though, is exactly the stage for them to flex their prowess. Their pure star power should be enough to carry them through, but we saw how they almost missed RMR qualification altogether. Evil Geniuses come into this tournament still an unknown. They could very well finish 3-0 and they could very well finish 0-3, both these options seem entirely feasible. For the sake of NA CS:GO, let's hope it's the former and not the latter.