No, Rio isn't that CT-sided

Over the past couple of weeks, we've seen CT-sided comebacks time and time again at the IEM Rio Major, where even a 12-3 lead might not be secure if you've started on the defensive half. As such, these matches have been labeled as CT-sided, and the label has been extended to the whole event.

I fell under the same impression as everyone else, but after a moment of hesitation, wondered if it was even true. Do Counter-Terrorists hold an advantage over Terrorists at IEM Rio, and if so, is it by an unprecedented amount?

To look at the data, let's compare the previous three Majors, Rio, Antwerp, and Stockholm. The map pool was consistent between these three events, and the last major (haha) economy update to really shake up the meta was just before the Stockholm Major with the M4A1-S buff. The most recent M4A1-S nerf (reduction from 25 to 20 bullets per magazine) only took effect this Major, so Rio should be more T-sided if anything. So, let's compare the CT-side winrates on each map for these three events, including their Challengers Stages.

As you can see in the overall column on the left, Rio doesn't actually break the recent mold of CT-side winrates. Overall, it falls just in line with Antwerp and Stockholm; in fact, it's two whole percent more T-side favored than Antwerp. If we go map by map, we can see that Rio's Inferno is dramatically lower than the rest. In fact, it's the only Terrorist favored map in the whole data set. If we move on over to Overpass, we can see an incredibly large increase though. IEM Rio's Overpass favors the defenders almost twice as much as it does the attackers.

Nonetheless, we can clearly see that IEM Rio is no more defensive-oriented than any other Major in recent history. If we wanted to go further back and look at all Majors, we can.

Viewing all Majors gives us an impressive blast to the past. I was not around in the CS:GO scene eight years ago to witness Majors where Counter-Terrorists won over 60 percent of all rounds, and I can only imagine the outcry now. Dreamhack Winter 2014 was incredibly unbalanced, with over 70% of rounds on Nuke and Cobblestone going the CT's way. But I digress.

IEM Rio does not stand out at all in regard to other Majors in terms of side favorability. In comparison to the previous Major, it's more T-favored. In terms of all Majors, it's not interesting in the slightest. So then, what could possibly explain the CT-sided slander the matches have earned?

In another attempt to explain the phenomenon, I looked at the differences between all matches and just the top 20 matchups. If the top 20 matchups were heavily CT-sided, that would give the idea of the whole event being CT-sided, since those are the matches with the most viewership. Unfortunately, that is not the case.

So, as it stands, Rio is not more CT-sided than the two Majors preceding it with the same map pool and economic situation. In the grand scheme of all Majors, it's neither more nor less CT-sided than usual. Even looking at the most hyped match-ups. nothing is out of the ordinary.

So, let's drop the CT-sided talk. A team who gets 12 rounds on CT-side is just good at defending. Getting 8 rounds on CT-side isn't a travesty (dependent on map, of course). As always in Counter-Strike, some teams are better at some sides than others, and some maps are easier to play as one side than the other. The IEM Rio Major is not CT-sided, so let's stop pretending it is.