Opinion: Liquid are going to blow their NA homestand
It's something you hate to hear as a North American fan, but there is no reason to expect Liquid to do well at IEM Dallas next week; a tough pill to swallow at NA's only S-tier event this year. However, the writing is already on the wall, as Liquid's massive deficiencies were laid bare in Antwerp. The team bombed out of the Legends Stage 0-3 against teams going through their own struggles and identity crises, while previously reliable stars like Jonathan "EliGE" Jablonowski looked uncharacteristically poor at the event. After an already mixed start to the year, Antwerp feels like it was something of a breaking point for Liquid, as this iteration of the team seems unlikely to trundle on as North America's default top team post-Dallas.
Following Liquid bowing out of the Major, Eric "adreN" Hoag told Dust2.us multiple times that the team would have to "go back to the drawing board before Dallas". This should raise a red flag, as it is highly unlikely adreN and Nick "nitr0" Cannella are going to be able to completely refit the team in less than two weeks. Outside of a few band-aids and quick fixes, the Liquid we see in Dallas should be the same one we saw in Antwerp.
This is especially likely to be the case, as with Richard "shox" Papillon seemingly set to exit the team post-Dallas, there will be little incentive to retrofit what is essentially a dead team walking. It is rather unfortunate that shox was never to find his groove in Liquid, however it seems both sides underestimated the linguistic and cultural clash that came with bringing in a player with no foreign playing experience. Hopefully shox can play a bit better in Dallas with the weight of longevity off his shoulders, but this is at best another band-aid fix to a team that isn't working with shox as a central piece.
Looking towards Liquid's opening match against Cloud9 (formerly Gambit), while Liquid were run over the last time they played the squad at ESL Pro League Season 15, it's hard to say definitively how the match will go. Cloud9 have a number of well-known issues and BO1's are unpredictable at best so Liquid could sneak out a win depending on individual performances and where the veto takes the two teams.
However, based on Liquid's past outings, they will run into issues right away in their next series when face Imperial or FURIA next. Against Imperial, where they could face elimination, Liquid will play a team pleased with their performance in Antwerp that, while weak as a collective, has a resurgent Fernando "fer" Alvarenga and Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo on their books. Against FURIA meanwhile, despite their own deficiencies, still works well as a unit and should be able to pick apart and poke to death a Liquid lineup that struggles in a number of key roles.
With the odds stacked against them, fans shouldn't expect a storied run from Liquid in Dallas and will need to look towards the future as Liquid seem set for another rebuild after nearly three years without a big title win.
