What to expect from Liquid v. MOUZ

After a disappointing loss to The MongolZ, Liquid stand at the edge of elimination at IEM Katowice 2024 while facing a tough opponent in MOUZ. This event is really do or die for Liquid as they look to finally gain ground after a disappointing end to Mareks "YEKINDAR" Gaļinskis' time with the team. While the Guy "NertZ" Iluz move has been relatively good so far, the whole team needs to come together to make things click in Liquid before it's too late.

Liquids under Stress

With Liquid opting to skip PGL Cluj-Napoca 2025 later this month, IEM Katowice 2025 is really a make or break event for them in the quest to earn VRS points for the Major. As such, being eliminated here with zero wins in the main stage would be a disaster for what is supposed to be a top team. To avoid this, they really need all guns firing, but unfortunately there's no guarantee that actually happens on the server, especially after a confidence shaking series for Roland "ultimate" Tomkowiak.

• ultimate had an absolute disaster of a series against The MongolZ, this cannot happen again

• NertZ was on fire on Nuke and Ancient against The MongolZ

• Liquid have the broader map pool at the moment which is a plus

MOUZ or LOLZ?

MOUZ are also aiming to survive in Katowice after making the questionable decision to bench Kamil "siuhy" Szkaradek ahead of the event. While they are playing with academy rookie Adrian "xelex" Vincze, bombing out of Katowice without a win would make the team and new IGL Ludvig "Brollan" Brolin look rather stupid and raise further questions about the wisdom of cutting siuhy.

• torzsi had a good debut at Katowice which is concerning when compared to ultimate

• Brollan is still getting up to speed as the IGL of MOUZ

• xelex is an unknown quantity, but MOUZ should not expect much from the rookie

Previous Matchups

Liquid and MOUZ have never played each other.

Likely Vetoes

As always, these vetoes come with the caveat that they are highly speculative as they depend on whether MOUZ, as the higher-ranked team at the time of seeding, chooses to pick first or ban last. We will assume they ban last.

• Liquid ban Dust2 (0% Winrate, 3 Maps Played)

• MOUZ ban Anubis (Permaban)

• Liquid pick Inferno (75% Winrate)

• MOUZ pick Nuke (83% Winrate)

• Liquid ban Train (0 Maps Played)

• MOUZ ban Ancient (2 Maps Played)

• Mirage as a Decider

Analysis: The main area of intrigue here is whether or not we see Train slip through, something I find highly unlikely. Despite Ancient and Mirage being bad maps for MOUZ I doubt they want to risk it all on a new map while I doubt Liquid want to get rid of a stronger map to accommodate it. I expect Liquid to ban the map but it could go either way.

Other than that, the veto slightly favors Liquid when we look at winrates, but with Mirage being a mess against The MongolZ, it could be a contentious decider for the NA side if the series goes to three maps.

Liquid will face off against MOUZ for survival at IEM Katowice tomorrow at 07:30AM.