An NA Cash Cup could kick Astralis out of Katowice

The creation of the North American Cash Cups began as a way to ensure that the amateur teams in the region would have a reason to continue playing and not be forced to retire early for a "real" career. Historically, the competition was a fight between Bad News Bears and Party Astronauts, the former of which has won it ten times in the namesakes' history.

These competitions have been used far and wide by teams in the region to supplant their FPL income so that the young players in college don't need a second job, or those dedicating their first post-college years can try out being a professional for the first time. For some, it helped them get to the next level. RBG and Party Astronauts were able to stick it out long enough to be signed by Evil Geniuses.

For some, there was the added bonus of ESL World Ranking points, which would improve their ranking in the region and maybe get them an invite to a ESL Challenger event if it was possible. The points were supposed to just be a recognition of the event and others as part of a massive overhaul on the ranking, which recognized every event in their World Ranking, ensuring that a ranking would be inclusive of the ecosystem as a whole.

The point distribution is also pretty intuitive - the more higher-ranked teams that join an event, the more points the event will award due to the quality of teams entered. Additionally, if there are more regions in an event, then the event is more prestigious, once again increasing the points available for the qualifying teams. In one such case of a Cash Cup, it was classified as a "L" Size and given a "B" Quality. Additionally, MIBR participated in the event as an SA team, giving the tournament an additional boost as it was an international event at this time.

For reference, should all NA teams participate in the Cash Cup, it would have a weight of 25%. With a South American team joining the competition, the weighting is increased to 33%. That additional 8% is enough to make-it-or-break-it for some teams based on the fine margin of points separating teams down in the lower ranks. For Complexity, Evil Geniuses, and paiN, it might be all that they need.

And this was where teams started to get the idea that the Cash Cups were more than met the eye. Could these events open the door for NA to the largest events in the world? But why the rush now? Why do this all in the last month if Katowice is in February? Well, the current information told to several teams is that the invites lock on December 19th, so for this weekend, it all comes down to these points that you can get in the next two days.

Complexity's Heist

It all started to get attention when Complexity entered their first ESEA Cash Cup in November, a small, weekend tournament that was intended for the more Tier two and Tier three teams to gain experience and potentially some funding as the region's fledging sponsors vanished. Complexity would go on to win that first Cash Cup, and then they entered the next weekend's event while Håkon "hallzerk" Fjærli was still at home, playing with over 100 ping. Despite this, Complexity won both, winning $18,000, but more importantly, getting far too many ranking points.

Now, why was Complexity, a team backed by the Dallas Cowboys, of which all players are comfortably earning in the tens of thousands a year, participating in weekend events with cash prizes that their share would amount to a fraction of their normal salary? It didn't make sense, until their ranking on the ESL World Ranking page started to climb higher and higher, faster than everyone else in the region.

Complexity's participation in the ESEA Cash Cup Autumn 4 and ESEA Cash Cup Autumn 5 provided them with something more valuable than $18,000 to share between six players - it provided them with approximately 85 ranking points, which catapulted them from 22nd place with 211 points and out of Katowice play-in contention to 16th place with 294 points and comfortably headed to Poland.

Once Complexity began playing the Cash Cups however, other teams started to notice. Evil Geniuses, to everyone's surprise put two of their main team players, Timothy "autimatic" Ta and Vincent "Brehze" Cayonte on the roster, in a bid to get a few more points to secure their spot for Katowice. With how the points are going, it even looks like they will participate once again.

Invite Slot Confusion

The biggest confusion over the last few weeks for some teams has been the actual distribution of spots. Many first looked to Liquipedia and their order for a glimpse into how the spots would be distributed. On the page for IEM Katowice 2023, it shows a distribution descending with awarded spots for the winners of IEM Rio, EPL 16, and ESL Cologne, followed by five World Ranking spots, which make up the direct invites.

Then, there are six World Ranking spots, followed by three EU World Ranking, two NA World Ranking, one SA World Ranking, one AS World Ranking, one OCE World Ranking, then the winners of ESL Mistrzostwa Polski Autumn 2022 and Elisa Masters Espoo 2022.

The distribution of the rankings meant that at one point, Complexity and Evil Geniuses were in contention for a World Ranking berth in the Play-In, giving North America two further invite slots which would go to paiN Gaming and ATK. However, after clarification from ESL to inquiring teams, the distribution actually prioritized the regional WR spots before the general World Ranking slots.

This, in fact, placed FURIA as the first NA invite with Complexity gaining the second one. Evil Geniuses, meanwhile, were now dangerously close to losing out of their spot due to low point totals against other teams in the world. Things were suddenly sent into a spin for everyone.

This emerging information is what sent Evil Geniuses into a bit of a spin, immediately rallying the troops to put themselves into a Cash Cup, winning points for autimatic and Brehze, in the hope that they could stave off Astralis who was just a few points separated from them.

However, things seemed to change over the weekend and through Monday night. ESL had retroactively altered the weighted average for certain events, affecting Cash Cups, ESEA events, and more importantly, the Elisa Masters Espoo 2022 event. That event went from a regional EU and NA event into a global event. Because of this change, Astralis' point total jumped from 215 on December 12th and two points behind EG, to 241 on December 13th and six points ahead of EG.

The change in Astralis and EG's point totals now has more, very real, ramifications when we go down the line of available teams that are within spitting distance of IEM Katowice's World Ranking invite that EG currently occupies.

However, as of Friday morning, ESL has gone back and actively changed the weighting of four events, which includes reversing the initial change to the Elisa Masters Espoo 2022. The other events affected were ESL Challenger Valencia, ESL Challenger Rotterdam, and FiReLEAGUE 2022: Global Finals. ESL explained that "upon review, we found that we have wrongly reclassified Elisa from regional to global and that a similar mistake happened at three other tournaments. This decision has been reversed and is once again regional."

This re-classification of events has a dramatic effect on the number of points distributed to each of the teams, which has altered their rankings just from Monday to Wednesday and now Friday. It all appears as if it is finally coming together, but this last weekend is set to be filled with thrills, complications, and surely some mathematical errors from journalists, fans, and even the tournament operator.

Final Days

Now comes the drama of it all; this weekend's NA Cash Cup could hold the secret as to who is going to Katowice with the points totals so tight. As of Thursday, MIBR had 241 points, Astralis had 241 points, Evil Geniuses had 235 points, and paiN Gaming had 212 points.

However, with the recent changes, the entire positions have changed. Whereas Astralis appeared to have a comfortable lead, they are now just on the cusp of losing out on a spot at IEM Katowice.

• #20 Evil Geniuses: 235 Points

• #21 Astralis: 222 Points

• #22 paiN: 217 Points

With all these points so close, it will be imperative that Evil Geniuses use at least the three of their American main team players to participate in this weekend's Cash Cup to get ahead of Astralis and stave off paiN who need a victory. However, all this will change on Monday. Let us explain.

According to Dust2.us' calculations, which takes rank decay into consideration, this should be the ranking disregarding the current CCT Central Europe and the upcoming Cash Cup on the weekend;

• #20 Evil Geniuses: 221.3 Points

• #21 paiN: 204.4 Points

• #22 Astralis: 197.9 Points

In this scenario, Evil Geniuses and paiN are in the driver's seat on dictating their own future. However, Astralis are not far behind, especially considering the CCT Central Europe will be a high value event for them. Here is where things get interesting. For Astralis, they have a minimum guarantee of making 4.47 points this week due to CCT, bringing their minimum point total to 202.4. For paiN and EG, they have no minimum in terms of points gained from a Cash Cup, however, they do need to make it into the top eight in order to get something for them to have a fighting chance.

However, Astralis has the ability to gain 27.8 points from the CCT event, putting their maximum point total at 225.7, which would be greater than Evil Geniuses, but it does not disqualify EG from Kato - they would still qualify so long as paiN does not severely outperform them during this weekend's Cash Cup event. Additionally, this is provided that Evil Geniuses do not make it into the Top 8 during this weekend.

Evil Geniuses are hampered by the fact that Tsvetelin "CeRq" Dimitrov and Sanzhar "neaLaN" Iskhakov have returned to Europe and are not in a position to participate at this time, unlike hallzerk from Complexity. EG will likely have to use two players from their EG Black or EG White teams, to fill the gaps and give as many points to Jadan "HexT" Postma, autimatic, and Brehze to keep themselves above Astralis and paiN to guarantee their slot.

Currently, MIBR, ATK, EG, and paiN are signed up, which makes this weekend's Cash Cup a size "M" with a "B" quality. The number of points available dramatically favors Evil Geniuses, despite having only three of their five main team members. Evil Geniuses will need to finish in 4tth in order to obtain 16.5 points, which would then be divided down to 9.9 points for the three active main team members to use. With 9.9 points, EG would finish at 231.2, giving them the advantage over Astralis who would have 225.7 should they win CCT Central Europe.

Moving on to paiN Gaming, they are in a tough spot, but not an impossible one. Given that Astralis could earn up to 225.7 points, paiN needs to then get at least second in this weekend's Cash Cup in order to earn 27.7 points, thus giving themselves 232.1 points - pushing past Evil Geniuses and Astralis. If Astralis lose out tomorrow against 1WIN in their CCT Central Europe match, then paiN doesn't need to do anything and will be headed to Katowice anyways.

And where does MIBR fit in this picture? Well, they're actually safe. They've accumulated enough points to guarantee themselves a slot through the IEM Katowice South American Invite and there is no possible chance for Fluxo, 00 Nation, or Imperial to catch up to them, even if they did play in this weekend's NA Cash Cup.

So in essence, all eyes are on this weekend for two events; CCT Central Europe 4 and the ESEA Autumn Cash Cup 7. Evil Geniuses, paiN, and Astralis are essentially duking it out in hopes of claiming the lost spots to IEM Katowice. As of now, EG and Astralis are qualified for Katowice, but it's paiN that is knocking on the door that would make this weekend extremely interesting.

Here's the Kicker...

It sounds crazy, but it doesn't even appear that anyone from FURIA was even aware that they were merely 27 points off of Cloud9 for a direct invite qualifier. Cloud9 currently sit at 710 points with the eighth and final spot in the direct invite, just edging out FURIA who sit at 683 points. Now, if a certain Brazilian organization felt like removing themselves from the possibility of getting beaten in the play-in, they could fly their entire team back to Florida, play two days of games, then go back to Brazil for Christmas with their families. Granted, FURIA would have to finish as runners-up in this event at a minimum, to earn 27.7 points, giving them 710.4, beating out Cloud9's 710.3 points. However, this does not currently take into account the decay of either team nor the change in weighting of the current NA Cash Cup. All we're saying, is that FURIA was much closer than they likely thought.

Additionally, if FURIA were to get into the direct invite spot, it would mean that Complexity and the second-highest-ranked team from NA (at this point, Evil Geniuses) would receive the two North American Play-In invite slots. In this case, paiN would still be in a fighting position, trying to hold off Astralis for the final spot.

Speaking of Astralis, they also put themselves into such a compromising position by placing Nicolai "device" Reedtz as their official new member. Out of Astralis' current 222.3 points, the star AWPer only accounts for... 1.4 points. Miniscule and incredibly detrimental. The man he replaced, Asger "farlig" Jensen, has 56.0 ranking points, which would put Astralis at 276.3 points and far beyond reach of Evil Geniuses, MIBR, or paiN. In fact, the Danes would not be anywhere near this discussion of missing out on Katowice if farlig continued in the main lineup.

Who knew that getting one of the greatest AWPers in CS:GO back into their lineup could inevitably lead to them missing one of the most prestigious events in the entire calendar year?

The ESL World Ranking and the future of the Katowice spots will inevitably go down to a CCT Central Europe online event and a North American Cash Cup featuring regional regulars. This is the beauty of CS:GO and at the same time, the consistent futility of creating a cohesive ranking. What a wonderful world we participate in.